State to Region to Suburb to Property - Greater Bendigo, Victoria
The Region in Focus
Greater Bendigo is a fast-growing regional city anchored by health, education and manufacturing
This report works from the big picture down to a single property, one region at a time. It opens with the Victorian backdrop, moves to the Greater Bendigo economy, then narrows to a suburb and an example property. Every figure is read against the state and tagged by source.
Official sourceABS, RBA, government data - measuredModelled estimateeconomy.id, NIEIR, forecast.id - clearly labelled
125,805
Population at 30 June 2024, up about 1.3% on the year
Official ABS ERP
$6.11bn
Gross regional product, about 1.29% of Victoria's economy
Modelled economy.id
4.1%
Unemployment, June quarter 2025, below the state rate
Official SALM
Health care
Largest employing industry across the region
Official VSA
What this report covers. The Victorian backdrop, then the Greater Bendigo region across output, industry, population, unemployment and building approvals, then a standout suburb and a worked example property with its full cash flow.
Tier 1 - The State Backdrop
Victoria is growing through its service industries, with a labour market near full employment
Before any region can be judged, the state it sits in sets the weather. Victoria's output is still expanding, the jobs market is tight by historical standards, and population growth remains the engine under housing demand.
5.0%
Victorian unemployment, April 2026, about 26,100 jobs added over the year
Official ABS Labour Force
+1.1%
Gross State Product growth, 2024 to 2025, led by services
Official ABS State Accounts
67.7%
Participation rate, near record highs
Official ABS Labour Force
+142,600
Melbourne's population gain in 2023 to 2024, largest of any capital
Official ABS Regional Population
Service industries are doing the heavy lifting in Victoria's growth
Industry gross value added growth, 2024 to 2025.
Source: ABS, State Accounts, gross value added by industry. Official
Why this matters for the region. The industries leading the state, health care, education and manufacturing, are the same ones carrying Greater Bendigo, so the region is riding the state's stronger sectors.
Tier 2 - The Region - Economic Output
Bendigo's economy is about $6.1 billion, the smaller of Victoria's big three regional cities
There is no official GDP below the state level, so gross regional product is a model. We label it as such and read it as a direction of travel. Bendigo is a substantial regional economy, though smaller than Geelong and Ballarat.
Gross regional product, modelled, the three rotation regions
economy.id and NIEIR modelled output, shown for context across the regions this report rotates through.
Source: economy.id and NIEIR, gross regional product. Modelled, not measured accounts. Modelled estimate
$6.11bn
Greater Bendigo gross regional product, modelled
Modelled economy.id
1.29%
Bendigo's share of the Victorian economy
Modelled economy.id
Manufacturing
Largest industry by output value, on the REMPLAN model
Modelled REMPLAN
The economist read. Bendigo is a diversified regional economy, health-care led on jobs and manufacturing led on output. It is smaller than Geelong but growing, with a strong government and health anchor that steadies it through cycles.
Tier 2 - The Region - Industry and Jobs
Health care leads the jobs base, with construction, retail and education close behind
A diversified jobs base is more resilient than one dominant employer. Here is the current mix across the broader Bendigo region's industries.
Workers by industry, Bendigo and surrounds region, 2024
Victorian Skills Authority Bendigo and Echuca region, which is broader than the Greater Bendigo local government area. Shown as the cleanest measured industry mix available.
Source: Victorian Skills Authority, Employment Projections, workers in 2024 (broader Bendigo, Echuca and surrounds region). Official
The economist read. Health care and social assistance dominates, which is typical of a regional hospital city and gives a stable, counter-cyclical employment base. Construction and education add depth.
Tier 2 - The Region - Population
Bendigo's population is climbing toward 172,000 by 2046
Population is the slow, structural driver of housing demand. The current estimate is measured by the ABS; the forward path is a council forecast and is labelled as a model.
Estimated resident population, Greater Bendigo
Solid line is measured ABS estimated resident population. Dashed line is the forecast.id projection. The 2023 point is derived from the reported annual growth rate.
Source: ABS Regional Population (measured). Forecast from forecast.id (modelled). OfficialForecast modelled
+1.33%
Greater Bendigo population growth, year to June 2024
Official ABS ERP
172,239
Forecast population by 2046
Modelled forecast.id
The economist read. Steady, durable growth of just over 1% a year, slower than Geelong but consistent, underpinning long-run housing demand in a city with land to grow into.
Tier 2 - The Region - Labour Market
Unemployment is low at 4.1%, sitting below the state
Small-area unemployment is volatile, so it is read against the state. Bendigo has firmed a little over the year but remains below the Victorian rate.
Unemployment rate, Greater Bendigo against Victoria
Greater Bendigo figures are smoothed SALM estimates for the local government area. The Victorian figure is the April 2026 ABS Labour Force reading.
Source: Jobs and Skills SALM via economy.id (Greater Bendigo) and ABS Labour Force (Victoria). Official
The economist read. A low jobless rate while population grows means the city is absorbing new arrivals into work. The note is the broader Bendigo employment region runs higher, so the tight LGA figure reflects the city core.
Tier 2 - The Region - Housing Supply
Dwelling approvals average about 870 a year and have softened recently
Approvals are the leading edge of housing supply. They tell you whether the pipeline is keeping pace with the population story.
Residential dwelling approvals, Greater Bendigo
Long-run average is about 870 dwellings a year over 2011 to 2022, of which roughly 93% were houses. The recent partial-year figure shows the softening since 2022. Not a complete annual series.
Source: ABS Building Approvals via profile.id and UDIA assessment. Long-run average and partial recent year. Official
The economist read. A long-run pipeline near 870 homes a year, easing lately like much of the state under higher rates and build costs. The question for the suburb tier is whether supply is keeping up with steady population growth.
Tier 3 - The Suburb
Bendigo's central suburb is a higher-yield, renter-heavy market that sells more slowly
Bendigo 3550 is the central locality of the city, a mix of heritage homes and CBD-edge living. Typical houses sit around $778,000 on a 3.39% yield. It scores 65 out of 100 overall, with a strong cashflow score of 84 but a more moderate lower-risk reading of 48. Renters make up about 45% of households, homes take about 48 days to sell, and vacancy is tight at 0.89%. Long-run growth is strong, up about 78% over the decade, with the cycle at a peak. Affordability is moderate at about 39 years to own.
$778K
Typical house price, on a 3.39% gross yield
HTAG modelled
$508/pw
Median house rent, used as the example property's rent
HTAG modelled
65 / 100
Overall RCS score, with a strong cashflow score of 84
HTAG modelled
48 days
Days on market, slower than the Geelong suburbs
HTAG modelled
The numbers behind it
HTAG Area Statistics Report, houses. Read against HTAG's own thresholds.
Metric
Value
Read
Typical price / rent / yield
$778K / $508pw / 3.39%
Higher yield than Geelong
RCS overall (growth / cashflow / risk)
65 (62 / 84 / 48)
Strong cashflow, moderate risk
Cycle / volatility
(+) Peak / 6
Near peak, mid volatility
Days on market
48 days
Balanced, slower selling
Vacancy rate
0.89%
Very tight
Stock on market / inventory
0.22% / 2.19 months
Tight supply
Hold period
9.5 years
Tightly held
IRSAD decile / renter to owner
5 / 45%
Mid, renter-heavy core
Years to own
39 years
Moderate affordability
5Y / 10Y price growth
+8.2% / +78.0%
Strong long run
Confidence (annual sales)
High (203)
Plenty of data
Source: HTAG Area Statistics Report, houses. Typical price and RCS scores are model outputs; sales and rental counts are measured. Modelled estimate
The Alaya read. Central Bendigo trades growth for cashflow: a higher yield and a strong cashflow score, balanced against a more moderate risk reading and a renter-heavy, slower-selling core. It suits an investor leaning to yield with a long hold.
Tier 4 - The Property
An example property and how its cash flow stacks up
A real listing chosen by hand on realestate.com.au: 546 Hargreaves Street, Bendigo VIC 3550, a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car character home on 1,178 square metres, listed at $730,000 to $800,000. We model the midpoint, $765,000. The weekly rent is the suburb median. The cash flow runs on Alaya's model, with stamp duty and land tax auto-calculated for Victoria.
Purchase price, the midpoint of the $730,000 to $800,000 asking range
Listing
$508/pw
Weekly rent, the suburb median, a 3.45% gross yield
HTAG suburb median
$684,543
Loan facility at 89.5% LVR, including capitalised LMI
Alaya model
$148,735
Capital injection needed, deposit plus cash purchase costs
Alaya model
Monthly cash flow position, interest only against principal and interest
Holding costs include management at 7.7%, council, water, insurance, maintenance and land tax. Stamp duty $40,970 and land tax $2,056 a year auto-calculate for Victoria from the price; LMI $11,343 is an 88% LVR estimate. Tax benefit assumes a 37% marginal rate and $2,000 depreciation.
Line item (monthly)
Interest only
Principal & interest
Effective rent, after 5.8% vacancy
+$2,074
+$2,074
Loan cost (interest, or P&I repayment)
-$3,537
-$4,193
Holding costs
-$806
-$806
Pre-tax position
-$2,269
-$2,925
Tax benefit, including depreciation
+$901
+$901
After-tax position, monthly
-$1,368
-$2,024
After-tax position, yearly
-$16,416
-$24,288
Cash flow on the Alaya model. Stamp duty and land tax auto-calculated for Victoria from the purchase price (exact). LMI is an 88% LVR estimate. The property is a real current listing chosen by hand (asking $730,000 to $800,000, midpoint modelled); weekly rent is the suburb median.Official + model
Sensitivity. Holding interest only, the pre-tax shortfall is about $2,269 a month. If rates rise 0.5%, that moves to roughly $2,554 a month; if rates fall 0.5%, it eases to about $1,984. Choosing interest only over principal and interest saves about $656 a month in the early years. After tax, the true cost of holding is about $1,368 a month.
Provenance
Sources and methods, every figure tagged official or modelled
Nothing here is fabricated. Measured data carries an official tag; anything from a model is labelled deliberately. This is the running data register for the Greater Bendigo edition.
4.1% (Jun qtr 2025), up from 3.1%; Victoria 5.0% (Apr 2026)
Jobs and Skills SALM; ABS Labour Force
Official
Industry mix (2024)
Health 25,143; construction 13,061; retail 12,974 (broader VSA region)
Victorian Skills Authority
Official
Building approvals
about 870 a year average (2011-2022); 542 partial FY 2023-24
ABS Building Approvals via profile.id
Official
Suburb metrics (Bendigo 3550)
typical $778K, rent $508pw, yield 3.39%, RCS 65
HTAG Area Statistics Report
Modelled
Cash flow government costs
stamp duty $40,970; land tax $2,056; LMI $11,343 (est)
SRO VIC formulas; LMI estimate
Official
Method notes
No official GDP exists below the state level, so gross regional product is always a model (economy.id and NIEIR), tagged accordingly.
The industry mix uses the broader Victorian Skills Authority Bendigo region, wider than the Greater Bendigo local government area, flagged on the chart.
The jobs-growth-by-industry chart from the Geelong edition is omitted here, because that breakdown was not available for Bendigo. It is left out rather than estimated.
Property price is the midpoint of the listing asking range; weekly rent is the suburb median; stamp duty and land tax are exact VIC formulas; LMI is an 88% LVR estimate.
Alaya Property - Macro-to-Property Report - Greater Bendigo. Figures current as at the dates shown against each metric. Full sources and methods on the final tab.