That house today
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In 2020, buyers who waited for certainty paid up to $645,503 more for the same typical house by 2026 (Logan council data; Rockingham and Salisbury tell the same story). This page walks through what the data said in 2020, what the headlines said, and what happened next.
Say you're sitting on a $150,000 deposit today. Here's what happens to the house it buys, year after year, while you're “waiting for the right moment”.
Illustration only. Assumes a $750,000 property (20% deposit = $150,000) growing at 6% p.a., in line with long-run Australian median growth. Real markets vary - the point is direction, not precision.
In May 2020, Australia's biggest bank modelled its worst case: house prices down 32%. Here is that forecast, drawn against what a typical house in Rockingham, in Perth's southern corridor, actually did.
Typical house price, Rockingham LGA, June 2019 to June 2026, Alaya property data warehouse. CBA scenario: prolonged-downturn case published May 2020, indicative path over 3 years.
The fear wasn't imagined - it was front-page news. These are real articles from 2020. Click any of them, they're still live.
Every dot on that chart is a reason people waited. The gap between the 2 lines is what waiting cost. The fear was real - it just wasn't a market signal.
Everyone read the same headlines in 2020. The only difference between these 2 people is what they did next.
Bought a typical Rockingham house in mid-2020 for $417,456 - nervous, like everyone else was.
Watched the same listings. Agreed the logic made sense. Wanted a little more certainty first.
That's what the typical Logan house added in value, every week, for 6 years. Rockingham added about $1,730 a week. Salisbury about $1,630. Nobody renovated anything.
| Market | Typical house, June 2020 | Typical house, June 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockingham · Perth | $417,456 | $957,757 | +$540,301 | +129% |
| Logan · SE Queensland | $444,629 | $1,090,132 | +$645,503 | +145% |
| Salisbury · Adelaide | $449,524 | $958,179 | +$508,655 | +113% |
Typical house price at council level from Alaya's property data warehouse, June 2020 vs June 2026. These 3 councils are representative investor markets in each city's growth corridor, not hand-picked suburbs. Value change before transaction and holding costs.
Pick one of the 3 markets above and set the budget you would have had in June 2020. We apply that market's actual percentage move - the same data as the table - to your number.
Applies the market-level change (+129% for the selected council, June 2020 to June 2026) to your budget. Assumes a typical house at your price point moved with its market. Cash in estimated at 25% (20% deposit plus purchase costs). Before transaction and holding costs, interest and tax. Illustration, not advice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
These were the readings in December 2020, sitting quietly underneath forecasts of a 32% collapse. This is the scorecard we run on every market in the country - here it is, scored on that day.
| Signal, Dec 2020 | Rockingham | Logan | Salisbury | What it told you |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rental vacancy | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | Rentals already tightening. Under 3% means tenants outnumber homes. Aligned |
| Days on market | 61 | 57 | 44 | Homes still selling in weeks, in the middle of a pandemic. Aligned |
| New listings, share of all homes | 0.26% | 0.24% | 0.19% | Almost nothing for sale. Under 0.4% is a supply drought. Aligned |
| Rents through 2020 | +3.9% | +0.8% | -1.8% | The forecast crash never reached rents. They held flat or rose through the panic. Aligned |
| Gross yield vs cash at 0.10% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | A house paid roughly 40x what money in the bank did. Aligned |
Alaya property data warehouse, December 2020 readings at council level. Rent movement is calendar year 2020, December to December.
We're not oracles. We run a systemised methodology that reads every market in the country the exact same way - which lets us narrow the whole country down faster than most people can read 1 suburb.
Melbourne isn't in the 2020 chapter, and that's not an accident. Every market runs its own cycle - and after every boom, the money rotates to the markets the boom skipped. That rotation has already started.
Typical house price indexed to June 2019, annual readings to June 2026, Alaya property data warehouse, council level. Launceston is running too: +11.0% over the same 12 months.
The rotation to the markets the boom skipped is no longer a theory - Darwin and Tasmania have already moved. Melbourne is the last big market still early in its turn, and it's the deepest one on the board.
The early movers have already left the gate, and the structural setup underneath the apartment market looks like Brisbane 2019 - in several places, sharper.
| Melton South | +16.8% |
| Frankston North | +15.8% |
| Broadmeadows | +13.9% |
| St Albans | +13.7% |
| Werribee | +13.0% |
12-month typical house price growth to June 2026, Alaya property data warehouse. Melbourne's affordable ring is already growing at strong double digits while the wider city wakes up.
| New supply: 46% below average | 72-91% below average |
| Vacancy: ~2%, falling | 1.3%, tightening |
| People added: +52,600 a year | +105,030, biggest of any capital |
| Priced below build cost | 20-40% below replacement cost |
From the Alaya Metro Melbourne Apartments investor report, 2026. On every driver that powered Brisbane, Melbourne's reading today is stronger.
Every one bought in 2019 while the press called oversupply. Median growth since: +87%. 28 of them doubled. Not one went backwards. The full interactive case, with real addresses, is 1 click away.
Nobody can tell you the exact bottom of a market, and anyone who promises one should worry you. What we can do is name the 3 specific things that would close this window, and show you where each one sits today.
In 2020 the crowd waited for certainty, and certainty cost them $500,000. The discomfort you feel right now is what a window feels like from the inside. It felt exactly like this in 2020.
You're standing in the same moment. Different city, same signals. The opportunity is here. What are you going to do about it?