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Quarterly data · Q2 2026

The property market cycle clock

The Market Cycle Clock shows where each of Australia's 8 capital cities sits in its property cycle - recovering, rising, peaking, cooling or stabilising - built from quarterly price momentum data, not sentiment surveys. Updated quarterly by design, because cycles move in quarters, not weeks.

The Market Cycle Clock · Q2 2026

Where each Australian capital sits in the property cycle

A quarterly snapshot of the eight capital city markets, positioned on the classic property clock. Updated as of April 2026.

Rising marketStart of recoveryApproaching peakPeak of marketBottom of market
City by city

What we're seeing on the ground

Click any dial above to read our current commentary.

SYD

Sydney

Rising market

Prices firm, listings tightening, buyer competition returning.

MEL

Melbourne

Start of recovery

Sentiment turning after a long flat run. Selective opportunities.

BNE

Brisbane

Approaching peak

Growth still positive but pace easing from the 2024-25 surge.

PER

Perth

Peak of market

Late-cycle. Yields compressed; selectivity critical.

ADL

Adelaide

Approaching peak

Strong run continues; capacity constraints on supply.

HOB

Hobart

Bottom of market

Reset largely complete. Value re-emerging in select pockets.

DAR

Darwin

Rising market

Yields lead nationally; capital growth building momentum.

CBR

Canberra

Bottom of market

Flat conditions; buyer power at multi-year highs.

Editorial positions curated by the Alaya research team. Updated each quarter after review of price, listing and sales data.

The 8 capitals this quarter

  • Sydney - Cooling. Growth still positive but decelerating across every major corridor - the run isn't over, the easy part is. Read the Sydney write-up →
  • Melbourne - Rising (early). Momentum across the growth corridors is at cycle peak while long-run growth still sits below history - the early innings of an upswing. Read the Melbourne write-up →
  • Brisbane - Peaking. Growth across Logan, Ipswich, Moreton Bay and Redland is decelerating after a 5-year run that pushed them far above their long-run history. Read the Brisbane write-up →
  • Perth - Peaking. After the biggest run of any capital, growth is decelerating across all major corridors - each sitting roughly double its long-run history. Read the Perth write-up →
  • Adelaide - Peaking. Growth is decelerating across Salisbury, Playford, Onkaparinga and Marion after an exceptional multi-year run. Read the Adelaide write-up →
  • Hobart - Rising (early). Momentum at cycle peak while every corridor still sits 15 to 28% below its long-run history - the recovery pattern. Read the Hobart write-up →
  • Darwin - Rising (strong). Momentum at cycle peak in Palmerston and Litchfield, with multi-year growth already well above long-run history - the comeback is in full swing. Read the Darwin write-up →
  • Canberra - At a turning point. Independent reads mildly disagree - one index shows values still easing, industry valuers place it at start of recovery. Watchers' territory. Read the Canberra write-up →